Long-Term Trends and Instability in Cropping Intensity and Foodgrain Production in Odisha.

Abstract

Agricultural resilience depends on both sustained output growth and stability in land utilisation patterns. This study investigates long-term growth and instability in Cropping Intensity, Total Foodgrain Production, and Rice Production in Odisha over the period (2004-2005) to (2023–2024). Growth trends are estimated using the compound annual growth rate (CAGR), while instability is measured through the Cuddy–Della Valle Index (CDVI) after adjusting for deterministic time trends. Empirical findings indicate a structural divergence in the state’s agricultural trajectory. Cropping Intensity declined at -1.66 per cent annually, reflecting weakening land-use intensification. Conversely, Total Foodgrain and Rice Production grew at 1.52 per cent and 1.45 per cent per annum, respectively, suggesting productivity-led expansion. Instability estimates reveal moderate volatility in Cropping Intensity (10.49 per cent) and relatively low instability in production variables. The evidence points to a shift from area-driven growth to productivity-based stabilisation. Nonetheless, declining land-use intensity may signal emerging structural vulnerabilities with implications for sustainability and agrarian welfare. The study provides empirical insights into Odisha’s agricultural transformation and contributes to broader debates on growth–instability dynamics in developing agrarian economies.